Implied probability is the bookmaker’s assessment of how likely an outcome is to occur based on the odds they offer. It’s a way of expressing the odds in percentage form, representing the bookmaker’s margin or ‘overround’.
To calculate the implied probability of odds, you can use the following formula
- Implied Probability (%) = 1 / Odds
- For example, if the odds are 3/4 or 1.75 in decimal odds format, the implied probability is:
- Implied Probability = 1 / 1.75 ≈ 57.1%
This means the bookmaker believes there’s a 57.1% chance of that particular outcome happening.
Value betting occurs when you believe the actual probability of an outcome is higher than the implied probability suggested by the bookmaker’s odds. In other words, you think the bookmaker has underestimated the likelihood of an event occurring. It is up to you to judge if those odds are correct. If you see an event more or less likely than the bookies do, you have perhaps found a value bet. If you can consistently detect value bets, you will eventually win more money than you lose.
Finding Value Bets
Assess Probabilities
Estimate the actual probability of an outcome happening based on your research, analysis, and expertise. This can include factors like team form, player injuries, weather conditions, and historical data.
Compare to Bookmaker Odds
Compare your estimated probability to the bookmaker’s implied probability (calculated from their odds). If your estimated probability is higher, you may have found a value bet.
Bet When Value Exists
Place bets when you identify value, as these bets are expected to yield profits in the long run. Value betting doesn’t guarantee immediate success, but it increases your chances of profitability over time.
It’s important to note that value betting requires a disciplined approach and a long-term perspective. It’s not about winning every bet but about making bets where the odds are in your favour over the long haul.
Line Shopping
“Line shopping” is a crucial concept in sports betting that involves comparing and analysing the odds or betting lines offered by multiple bookmakers to find the best value for your wagers. The goal of line shopping is to maximise potential profits by betting on the most favourable odds available in the market.
Here’s how line shopping works
Select Several Bookmakers
To begin line shopping, you’ll need accounts with multiple bookmakers or online betting platforms. Different bookmakers may offer slightly different odds for the same events, so having access to several options is essential.
Identify the Event
Choose the sporting event or matchup you wish to bet on. This could be a game, a match, a race, or any other type of sports event.
Compare Odds
Visit each of the selected bookmakers and compare the odds or betting lines for your chosen event. Pay attention to key factors, such as point spreads, money line odds, and over/under totals.
Look for Value
Determine which bookmaker offers the most favourable odds for your specific wager. Value can be found by identifying odds that are higher than what you believe represents the true probability of the outcome occurring.
Place Your Bet
Once you’ve identified the bookmaker with the best odds, place your bet with that bookmaker. Betting on the bookmaker offering the highest odds can increase your potential payout if your bet is successful.
Keep Records
It’s essential to keep records of your bets, including the odds you secured and the bookmakers you used. This allows you to evaluate the effectiveness of line shopping over time.
The advantages of Line Shopping in sports betting
Maximising Profit
By consistently betting at the best available odds, you increase your potential profits over time. Even small differences in odds can have a significant impact on your overall returns.
Reducing Risk
Finding favourable odds can also help reduce the potential risk of your bets. When you secure higher odds, you may need to wager less to achieve the same potential payout, reducing your overall exposure.
Access to Better Value
Line shopping allows you to identify bets with higher expected value (EV), where the odds offered exceed your calculated probability of the outcome. This is a key principle for successful sports betting.
It’s important to note that line shopping requires patience and effort. It may involve monitoring odds across multiple bookmakers, especially if you’re betting on a variety of sports or events. However, the benefits of line shopping, in terms of improved profitability and reduced risk, make it a valuable strategy for serious sports bettors.
Bettors who choose to do line shopping should do so with caution, conduct their own research, and consider all factors when making betting decisions. Additionally, managing bankroll and practising responsible gambling should always be a priority.